North Dakota builders have been saying it for years: there aren't enough homes, and there aren't enough people to build them. A new statewide study puts hard numbers on both problems.
The 2026 North Dakota Statewide Housing Needs Assessment, prepared by North Dakota State University's Center for Social Research for the North Dakota Housing Finance Agency, projects that the state would need to add 48,315 housing units by 2034 to meet potential need. That's a 13% increase from 2024. The report is dated September 2026.
The gap
The study ran two forecasts. The first assumes housing construction continues at the pace of the past five years. That approach adds 25,589 units by 2034, about a 7% increase.
The second is based on projected changes in population by age. That's where the 48,315 figure comes from. The difference between the two is about 22,700 units, the shortfall the state faces if building doesn't pick up.
The need isn't spread evenly. The report projects 24,400 more units needed in Region V, the Fargo area, a 23% increase, and 11,621 more in Region VII, the Bismarck area, a 15% increase. Regions I, VIII and IV, in the northwest, southwest and northeast, also show strong projected growth.
The biggest single change will come from an aging population. The number of North Dakota householders 65 and older is projected to rise from 83,740 in 2024 to 116,762 in 2034, a 39% increase. The report also says the greatest need over the next 10 years is for more affordable housing for lower-income households.
The report also has numbers every contractor in the state will recognize.
In 2025, local building permit offices authorized 2,440 new privately owned housing units with a total valuation of $717 million. Single-family permits have fallen back to pre-2010 levels, at 1,761 in 2025, after peaking at 4,531 in 2014. Multifamily permits for buildings with at least five units dropped to 613.
Meanwhile, the number of residential builders has shrunk. Citing 2023 Census Bureau data, the report counts 589 residential builders in North Dakota, down 9% from 650 in 2013, though up from 551 in 2020. Builders are now concentrated in 29 counties, down from 52 in 2013, and 24 counties, all rural, didn't have a residential construction business in 2023.
Costs keep climbing. The average price per square foot for new construction sales statewide hit a high of $220 in 2025, up from $162 in 2015. The average value of a single-family home authorized for construction in 2025 was $348,873, a 77% increase from 2015. The report notes that for the 46% of North Dakota households earning less than $62,341, the most they could afford would be $164,614.
The mix of homes for sale has shifted, too. In 2015, 64% of homes sold were priced at $250,000 or less. By 2025, that share had dropped to 34%.
Renters are feeling it as well. Median gross rent in North Dakota grew 43% from 2014 to 2024, from $676 a month to $954, faster than inflation. Over the same stretch, the homeownership rate for households earning $50,000 to $74,999 dropped from 71% to 55%.
The report also points to work waiting on existing affordable housing. About one-fourth of the state's affordable units have been in service since before 2000, and 13% since before 1980. Properties run by public housing authorities are likely in need of repair, with most built or rehabilitated before 1973.
Why it matters for Contractors
The headline is simple: North Dakota needs nearly twice as many new homes over the next decade as the current pace would produce, and the strongest demand is in the Fargo and Bismarck regions. The report says the greatest need is for affordable housing for lower-income households and for housing suited to an aging population, so that's where much of the demand points. The report's builder count also tells a story. With fewer residential builders than in 2013, and none at all in 24 rural counties, there's room for contractors willing to travel or expand into underserved areas. Rehab is another opportunity, with a large share of the state's affordable housing stock decades old. And with new-construction prices at a record $220 per square foot, contractors who find ways to control costs will be best positioned to compete for affordable housing work funded through the North Dakota Housing Finance Agency.