Missouri contractors can expect a quieter workers' comp renewal season than some recent years. The National Council on Compensation Insurance has proposed no overall change in Missouri's advisory loss costs for 2027, and the contracting industry group is set for a 2 percent decrease, the state Department of Commerce and Insurance said Nov. 4 (via Missouri Department of Commerce and Insurance).
DCI credits the flat result mainly to a long, steady drop in how often workers get hurt on the job. "Missouri employers continue to benefit from a strong, competitive market that keeps costs stable and predictable," DCI Director Angela Nelson said in the release. "Steady rates reflect the ongoing commitment of Missouri businesses and employees to workplace safety."
The numbers by industry
NCCI's proposed average changes by industry group for 2027:
- Contracting: down 2.0%
- Office and clerical: down 1.2%
- Goods and services: down 0.2%
- Manufacturing: up 1.2%
- Miscellaneous: up 1.3%
NCCI's filing lists the overall change as 0.0%, effective Jan. 1, 2027, for new and renewal policies. Inside that average, individual class codes move a lot more. DCI's independent actuarial review shows class changes ranging from a 20% cut to a 21% increase. Carpentry for residential dwellings up to three stories, class 5645, drops 6.2%.
The state's outside actuaries, Actuarial & Technical Solutions, called NCCI's work actuarially sound but indicated a slightly higher figure of their own, a 0.2% increase. They pointed to claim frequency that has fallen since 2010, partly offset by rising costs per claim, driven in part by wage growth.
For context, Missouri loss costs rose 1.3% for 2026, with contracting up 0.3%, according to DCI's release last year. That came after a 7.5% overall cut for 2024, when contracting fell 7.6%, per DCI.
The attorney factor
DCI also used the announcement to flag a cost it says employers can't control. Citing NCCI data across 38 jurisdictions, the department said 35.2% of Missouri lost-time claims in 2025 involved an attorney, compared with a 26.5% average in neighboring states and 22.3% countrywide. Nelson called attorney involvement an outsized cost driver in Missouri's workers' comp rates.
Loss costs aren't your premium
This is the part that trips people up. NCCI's loss costs are an estimate of expected losses per $100 of payroll, not the rate you pay. Since 1994, Missouri insurers have set their own rates. Each carrier applies its own loss cost multiplier to cover expenses and profit, and state rules require carriers to file final rates.
From there, your bill gets adjusted by your experience mod, schedule rating, expense constant, premium discount and state surcharges, including the Second Injury Fund surcharge, DCI's FAQ explains. Policies over $9,000 a year, or $4,500 a year for two straight years, qualify for experience rating, which compares your actual losses to expected losses over the past three years.
So a flat statewide number doesn't guarantee a flat renewal. Your class code, payroll and claims history matter more.
Why it matters for Contractors
For most Missouri contractors, 2027 should be a stable year, and residential carpenters in class 5645 may see some real relief. Don't assume that shows up on its own. Look up your own class codes in DCI's online rate comparison tool, and if your renewal comes in higher, ask your agent why. DCI's own advice is to shop around, especially when a big increase shows up on a renewal notice.
Remember too that in Missouri, construction employers have to carry coverage from their first employee, not the five-employee threshold that applies to most other businesses, according to the state Division of Workers' Compensation.
The best lever you control is your mod. Safety programs, quick claim reporting and getting injured workers back on light duty when it's safe all show up in your experience rating over time. With attorney involvement running high in Missouri, staying in close contact with an injured worker early can help keep a claim from escalating.